Paulo Costa may have his own history with Khamzat Chimaev, but the Brazilian still believes Chimaev would beat Sean Strickland.
Even with bad blood between them, Paulo Costa is siding with Khamzat Chimaev in a potential showdown with Sean Strickland at UFC 3XX. Speaking about the matchup, Costa made it clear he expects Chimaev to control the fight and find a submission finish rather than get dragged into a striking battle.
That opinion carries weight because of where both men sit in the middleweight picture. Chimaev remains one of the division’s biggest wild cards, a contender with title upside if he can stay active, while Strickland is still viewed by many American fans as one of the toughest outs at 185 because of his pressure, jab and durability. A win for Chimaev would likely move him a step closer to another title push; a win for Strickland would reinforce his case as a fixture near the top of the division.
Costa’s breakdown was simple: Chimaev’s path is on the mat, not on the feet. He said Chimaev would likely take Strickland’s back and finish the fight by submission, arguing that while Strickland defends takedowns well, his ground game is not strong enough to handle that level of grappling threat. Costa also dismissed the idea of Strickland changing the fight with one shot, saying the former champion does not have the kind of one-punch power that would force a different prediction.
That lines up with how the matchup is often discussed in U.S. MMA media. The central question is whether Strickland can keep the fight standing long enough to drown Chimaev in volume and pace, or whether Chimaev’s explosiveness early is simply too much. Chimaev has built his reputation on overwhelming opponents quickly, and if he gets to dominant positions early, the fight could swing fast.
Costa also warned that trading strikes with Strickland would be a major mistake, suggesting Chimaev’s smartest route is the one everyone already sees coming. If this fight does get booked, the first few minutes — and especially the first takedown attempt — will tell the story.
